Horse Racing Passion Blog
Horse Racing Passion Blog
Horse Racing Passion Blog
Twitter

Who will win the #BelmontStakes and most important, why AP will likely not !

preakness rain

A very wicked electrical storm depleted American Pharoah’s field in the Preakness, AP was not the only rival that blew away the other 7 contenders on Preakness day, an almost supernatural storm that struck Pimlico just before the horses hit the track and ended just after the gates opened was in my opinion decisive for the final outcome of the race, and without it, I’m not so sure that AP would have gone to win the race the way he did, horses like Fire Line and Dortmund would have ran much better races and did not move a bit on the off track.

I know AP has proven to be a very good colt, but I can’t stop asking myself the question of what would the outcome have been if it didn’t rained that day?, no one could answer that with certainty, but with certainty Firing Line would not have finished last after a skidding in the mud when the bell rang, probably Dortmund would have ran a better race too, who knows.

Having said that, I believe that AP is very vulnerable coming into this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, and if we have a dry track like we probably will, in my opinion, it will be very unlikely for him to win and here is why.

AP won the Derby after being whipped more than 30 times!, fuuuuuully extended and just barely passed Firing Line at the final half furlong, then in the Preakness the rain did most of the damage depleting the whole field, reason why  I will toss that victory, because it’s not fair to judge it due to the fact that the horses that really posed a big threat to him, could not run on an off track at all.

Saturday he will face very tough and fresh competitors, Materiality has stamina to run all day long and do so very fast too, if he repeats his Florida Derby run, he may very well give the race a very honest pace and wear down AP, also his Derby run was one of the best races in defeat, this horse can really run and can very well cross the finish line in first place I’m very glad that he skipped the Preakness and he can’t be better prepared for saturday’s Belmont by one of the best trainers in the history of this race Mr.Todd Pletcher.

We also have a remarkable group of horses that are very able of coming from off the pace, like Mubtaahij, the winner of the UAE Derby he`s much more better prepared to run this this time, has settle super well in the USA, ran a Kentucky Derby with many obstacles to overcome, the long trip, the groom not coming, the food mix prohibited, and he was banged up during the beginning of the race and even with all those obstacles, he managed to finish only 9 lengths from AP, on Saturday the pace will favor him and he will not run into any traffic, the son of Dubawi is built to run all day and trainer Mike de Kock did not leave him in the USA for nothing, he stayed to redeem himself and all his wonderful crew too. Frosted is another very tough contender trainer Kiaran McLaughlin transformed this horse after the minor throat procedure and adding blinkers, he has this horse more than ready to kill, you can see his hidden smile in every interview he gives, the horse could not be fitter and could not be better trained for the race, he could very well be the spoiler Saturday afternoon.

My 2015 Belmont Stakes picks are :

FROSTED

frosted

 

MUBTAAHIJ

MubtaahijUAEDerby2015DRC_AW298


Leave a Reply